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There’s a lot of uncertainty right now and that’s leading to some dramatic headlines. And if you’re thinking about buying a home, that can make you feel a little less sure about your decision. A recent study by CNBC asked homebuyers what they’re most worried about, and three themes kept coming up again and again:
Misconception #1: “I’ll Just Wait, Because Mortgage Rates Are Going To Fall Dramatically”One idea doing its rounds on social is that mortgage rates are going to drop dramatically soon. So, it’s better to wait to buy. But is that really what’s expected? While mortgage rates have come down a bit in the last few weeks, forecasts don’t show a major drop ahead. The most likely scenario is that rates stay somewhere in the low 6% range this year. And that’s not a big change from where rates are now (see graph below): Of course, this depends on where inflation and the economy go from here. But, based on what we know today, waiting for a big drop in rates may not work out the way some people hope. As U.S. News explains: “Mortgage rates aren't expected to change much over the next several quarters . . .”Not to mention, even with rates where they are today, it’s already more affordable than a year ago. So, even if they don’t change much, it’s still better than it was. Misconception #2: "There Are Too Many Homes for Sale Right Now”You’ve probably heard inventory is up. And nationally, it is. The number of homes for sale is 8% higher than this time last year. But that's not a bad thing. In fact, it’s one of the reasons buyers have a bit more breathing room right now. The problem is the headlines are making something good, sound bad. They’re focusing on how this is the most inventory we’ve had since 2019 or how many homes builders are building. And that can make it sound like the number of homes for sale is rising too far, too fast. But that’s not what the bigger picture shows. Data from Realtor.com proves that, even though inventory is up compared to last year, it’s still nearly 14% lower than it was during the last normal housing market (2017-2019): While it can vary a lot based on where you live, only 9 states have more inventory than pre-pandemic today. That’s a key reason why there still aren’t enough homes for sale to trigger something like the crash back in 2008. Misconception #3: “Home Prices Are About To Crash”You’ve probably seen this one, too. The confusion is coming from the fact that some metros are experiencing slight price declines. And influencers are running with that and saying prices are crashing. But that’s not the reality. Most areas are seeing prices rise, not fall. And that’s because:
And even in the markets experiencing mild declines, the drops aren’t enough to cancel out the big gains most homeowners have seen in the last 5 years (see graph below): That’s not a crash. That’s just prices moderating after a few record-breaking years.
Bottom LineOnline posts are going to make things sound worse than they are. If you want a true, data-bound look at what’s really happening in today’s market, lean on a real estate agent. Let’s connect so you have someone to separate fact from fiction today.
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Mortgage rates have been volatile lately. And if you’re thinking about buying a home, that can make it harder to plan. But there are still things you can do to get the best rate possible in today’s market. It starts with having the right information. So, what’s causing the bumps in rates? And what can you do about it? Let’s break it down. Mortgage Rate Volatility Is NormalData from Freddie Mac shows the recent volatility. After trending down for well over a year, there was a rise this month (see graph below): While it’s easy to be distracted by the changes, here’s what you need to remember.
It’s normal for rates to bounce around a bit here and there. For example, if you look back at the graph, you’ll see that even within the past year there have been times like this when rates inched up. We’re in one of those moments right now and you need to be aware of that. Especially when there’s economic uncertainty or big global events happening, volatility like this is expected. As Investopedia explains: “Mortgage rates don’t move in isolation. When global events inject uncertainty into financial markets . . . that can ripple through to borrowing . . . mortgage costs can respond quickly to geopolitical developments. As long as uncertainty remains elevated, rate swings may continue.”And that’s one of the reasons why trying to time the market isn’t a wise move. You can’t control what happens with mortgage rates. But there are still things you can do to help you get the best rate possible in today’s market. And here’s where to focus your effort. Your Credit ScoreYour credit score plays a big role in the rate you qualify for. Even a small improvement can make a noticeable difference in your monthly payment. As Bankrate puts it: “Your credit score is one of the most important factors lenders consider when you apply for a mortgage. Not just to qualify for the loan itself, but for the conditions: Typically, the higher your score, the lower the interest rates and better terms you’ll qualify for.”So, make sure you do what you can to keep your credit score up. If you’re not sure what your score is or how you can improve it, talk to a trusted loan officer. Your Loan TypeThere are also different types of home loans – and each one can have unique requirements, benefits, and rates for qualified buyers. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) explains: “There are several broad categories of mortgage loans, such as conventional, FHA, USDA, and VA loans. Lenders decide which products to offer, and loan types have different eligibility requirements. Rates can be significantly different depending on what loan type you choose.”That’s why it’s so important to explore your options with a lender. You may even want to talk to multiple lenders to see how the options vary. Your Loan TermThe length of your loan matters too. Most lenders typically offer 15, 20, or 30-year loans. Freddie Mac offers this advice: “When choosing the right home loan for you, it’s important to consider the loan term, which is the length of time it will take you to repay your loan before you fully own your home. Your loan term will affect your interest rate, monthly payment, and the total amount of interest you will pay over the life of the loan.”Again, to figure out what makes the most sense for your budget and long-term goals, have a lender walk you through all your options. Bottom LineThinking about buying right now? The best advice is to accept that you can’t control where rates are going to go from here. What you can do is work with a trusted lender and take steps that’ll help you get the best rate possible. So, if you want to move today, let's make it happen. We just need to control the controllables and focus where it counts. For a while, buying your first home hasn’t just felt hard. It may have felt out of reach. Not because you weren’t ready. Not because you weren’t trying. But because every time you ran the numbers, they didn’t work. That’s why so many first-time buyers stepped back. But after years of sitting on the outside looking in, this Spring could give buyers like you an opening again – especially in some markets. Metros Where Buyers May Have an Easier Time Breaking into the Market Zillow just released a list of the top 50 metros for first-time buyers this Spring. And here’s a quick snapshot of the top 10 (see chart below): According to Zillow, in these top-ranked markets, median-income households can afford 68% of all homes for sale. Let that sink in.
Not long ago, it felt like you could barely afford anything. Now, you may actually have some options again. That doesn’t mean every home is suddenly going to fit your budget. But it does mean the door that felt closed for so many buyers is starting to crack back open. And in a number of cities, first-time buyers may finally be getting a shot at buying. Why This Is Starting To Open UpThese cities are rising to the top not because of any one big change, but from a few smaller ones finally lining up. As Orphe Divounguy, Senior Economist at Zillow, explains: “First-time buyers are finally seeing some light at the end of the tunnel. Affordability is still a challenge, but rising incomes, stabilizing prices and improving inventory are creating real opportunities in parts of the country. In the strongest markets for first-time buyers, they'll find more choices, less competition and a clearer path to homeownership than they've had in years.” Basically, three big things are working in your favor:
“Income growth has outpaced house price growth for 19 straight months, boosting house-buying power even as mortgage rates remain elevated.” How To Find the Opportunities in Your Local MarketBut what if your city didn’t make the top 10 list, or even the top 50 markets? Here’s what you really need to remember. There’s going to be opportunities in every market, if you know where to look. Even in the same city, two buyers can have completely different experiences. And a big part of that is who they choose as their partner. The right agent knows how to find pockets of opportunity in any market. That could mean:
Bottom LineFor a long time, first-time buyers have felt stuck, waiting for their turn to buy. But for some buyers, this Spring might be the first time in a while where things start to feel more within reach again. Want to see which neighborhoods could give you the best shot at buying right now? Let’s talk. There’s a lot of noise out there right now about investors in the housing market. Some headlines make it sound like big Wall Street firms are buying up everything in sight. And if you’re trying to purchase a home yourself, that can make it feel like the odds are stacked against you. But when you take a closer look at the data, a very different picture starts to come into focus. Most Investors Are Just Everyday OwnersFor starters, when you hear the word investor, you probably picture big corporations. And that misconception is a large part of what’s feeding into the myth that they’re buying up all the homes. Most investors aren’t big companies, at all. They’re everyday people just like you. They’re someone who owns a second home (like a vacation house at the river), a neighbor who has 1 or 2 rentals, or even a homeowner who tried to sell their home, didn’t get the price they wanted, and decided to rent it instead. And when all of these groups are lumped together in the headlines, the number of investors sounds high – especially if you’re operating under the assumption all investors are big investors. But here’s what the numbers really show when you drill down. Institutional Investors Are a Small Slice of the Housing MarketLarge institutional investors, those big companies buying homes, actually make up a very small share of the overall housing market. According to BatchData, the largest investors (those with 1,000+ homes) own just 0.4% of the 86 million single-family homes in the country. And their share of the market is actually shrinking. Data from Parcl Labs shows big investors are selling 4 homes for every 1 they’re buying right now (see visual below): That means they’ve actually added almost 1.7k homes back into the market lately.
What This Means for YouThe story is clear. Instead of aggressively buying up homes, most of these companies are stepping back, which means less competition from them than you might expect. If you were someone who thought they were dominating the market, let that give you some peace of mind. Most of the competition you’ll face is from other everyday buyers – people just like you. And with most large investors stepping back, there may be more opportunity in the market than you think. Bottom LineIt’s easy to assume big investors are taking over the housing market, but the data tells a different story. If you want an expert's opinion on what investor activity looks like in our area, let's talk. Because odds are, it’s not as big a factor as you may think. Your House Hasn’t Sold Yet. Should You Rent It Out Instead?
When your house sits on the market longer than expected, it can get frustrating fast. You start asking: what now? And for a growing number of homeowners, that turns into: should I just rent it instead? While it sounds like a simple backup plan, becoming “accidental landlord” is actually a much bigger decision than most people realize. That’s when someone planned to sell, didn’t get the price or traction they hoped for, and decided to rent the house out instead. And lately, that's happening more often. Why the Number of Accidental Landlords Is RisingIf you’re faced with the same choice to rent or to sell, here’s what you need to know. First, you’re not alone. And that should actually be some comfort. According to Zillow about 2.3% of homes available for rent were previously listed for sale. That may not sound like a lot, but it’s actually the highest share in almost 6 years. Before you go that route yourself, it’s worth slowing down and looking at the full picture. Ask yourself these 3 questions first. 1. Would Your House Actually Work as a Rental?What’s right for your situation is going to depend on your location, your home’s condition, and what the rental market looks like in your area. Think about:
“At the heart of any rental market is the balance between supply and demand. When more tenants are looking for housing than there are available units, rental prices rise. On the other hand, if new construction adds hundreds of apartments or homes to a neighborhood, prices can soften as tenants have more choices.”If your home would struggle to stand out or command the rent you need, that’s something to take seriously. Just because you can rent it doesn’t mean it’s the best option for you. 2. Are You Ready To Be a Landlord?This is the part people don’t always think about upfront. On paper, renting sounds like easy passive income. But in reality, it’s a hands-on responsibility. Imagine:
3. Have You Run the Real Numbers?There’s also the financial side of things. For starters, renting out your house comes with extra expenses. Here are a few of the biggest according to Bankrate:
Your Next Step: A Conversation with Your AgentBefore you make any decision, talk to your current agent about overhauling your sales strategy first. Sometimes it’s not that buyers aren’t out there. It’s that something about the pricing, presentation, or marketing isn’t quite lining up with what they’re looking for. And a few small adjustments can make a big difference. Because while renting can be a great choice for the right person with the right house, if you’re only considering it because your listing didn’t get traction, there may be a better solution. Bottom LineIf you're torn between selling and renting, make sure to carefully weigh the pros and cons first. For some homeowners, the hassle (and the expense) of renting may not be worth it. For a lot of people, the math on buying a home just doesn’t really work right now. Maybe that’s how it feels for you too. You look at the cost of buying. Then you look at the cost of childcare. And it starts to feel like you have to choose one or the other. But some families are finding a way to make both work by doing something a little different: teaming up to purchase a multi-generational home. One Reason This Is Becoming More CommonIt’s no secret that affordability has been a challenge in recent years. But for families with young kids, there’s an added layer that can make it feel even harder: childcare. According to the Department of Health and Human Services, childcare should take up no more than 7% of your monthly income. But in reality, the average married couple spends closer to 10% (see map below): And for the first time, childcare is showing up as a key reason why they chose this option. As NAR explains:
“This year’s report features two new primary reasons for purchasing a multi-generational home: grandchildren living in the home (12%) and to help reduce the cost of childcare (6%).” Why It WorksBuying a multi-generational home solves two big challenges at the same time.
If the costs of childcare and housing together have made buying feel out of reach right now, it may be worth exploring creative options like buying a home with your loved ones. Bottom LineIf you want more information on multi-generational homes, let’s have a quick conversation about what’s available in our area. Sometimes the path to homeownership isn’t doing it alone. It’s doing it together. According to Google Trends, online searches for down payment information recently hit an all-time high. And that’s a clear sign more buyers are trying to figure out what they really need to save before making a move (see graph below): If you’re wondering the same thing, you can always turn to the internet for answers. But a lot of the time, it’s better to ask a local expert. Because here’s what a pro would tell you. The 20% Down Payment MythThe idea that you need 20% down to buy a home is one of the biggest misconceptions around the homebuying process. And the data debunks the myth. While there are benefits to putting that much money down, most first-time buyers put down far less. Here’s why. Unless it’s stated by your lender, you typically don’t have to have a 20% down payment. There are even some loan options designed to help you get into a home with a much smaller upfront cost. As the Mortgage Reports explains: “The amount you need to put down will depend on a variety of factors, including the loan type and your financial goals. If you don’t have a large down payment saved up, don’t worry—there are plenty of options available, and you don’t need to put down the traditional 20% . . . many homebuyers are able to secure a home with as little as 3% or even no down payment at all . . .”For example, FHA loans allow down payments as low as 3.5%, while VA and USDA loans offer zero down payment options for qualified applicants, like Veterans. And those options are just one reason so many first-time buyers are able to buy without a 20% down payment. What Buyers Are Actually Putting DownSo, if buyers aren’t doing 20%, how much do they actually put down? According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the median down payment for first-time homebuyers is only 10%. That’s half of what you probably expected. That means if you’re aiming to save 20% because you think you have to, you may be setting a timeline that’s longer than necessary. And here’s some more good news. It’s not only that you may be able to buy with less money down than you thought, but there are also options to help you get to your down payment goal even faster. Why You Should Look into Down Payment Assistance ProgramsThere are a lot of programs designed to help you save for a down payment – and they can make a big difference in how fast you hit your savings target. Unfortunately, buyers don’t realize how many there are, or that they may qualify for help. Research from Realtor.com shows almost 80% of first-time homebuyers qualify for down payment assistance (DPA), but only 13% actually use it (see chart below): And that’s another big miss holding would-be buyers like you back.
In the U.S., there are over 2,600 homeownership programs available, many offering significant financial support. As Down Payment Resource shares: “With an average benefit of $18,000, down payment assistance (DPA) remains one of the most essential tools for addressing the nation’s affordability challenges. Programs continue to expand in scope, serving a broader range of incomes, property types and borrower needs, including first-generation, military and repeat buyers.”Imagine how much further your savings could go with an extra $18,000 you can use to buy. In some cases, you may even be able to stack multiple programs, giving what you’ve saved an even bigger boost. Bottom LineThe simple truth is: most first-time buyers don’t put 20% down. And if you’ve been waiting to buy until you have that saved, you may be setting a timeline that’s longer than necessary. To find out what you really need to save and if you qualify for any help, connect with a trusted lender who can walk you through your options. You may be able to buy sooner than you thought. |
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Jacquelyn Duke, Realtor®
Licensed to Sell in the State of Iowa [email protected] (515) 240-7483 Realty One Group Impact 617 SW 3rd Street Ste 101 Ankeny, IA 50023 Disclaimer: The material on this site is solely for informational purposes. No warranties or representations have been made. |
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